Will OpenAI not announce that it has resumed training by October 20, 2026?

THE PANEL'S BRIEF, WRITTEN BEFORE THE OUTCOME

Panel sits at Yes, mean 58% with a wide 88%, 26% split

The panel mean is 58% and the median is 62%, with forecasts ranging from 88% down to 26%. A majority of models lean Yes, 11 of 17, but many records contain no written thesis or drivers. The split is numerical rather than evidential: high and low forecasts are present but individual records mostly did not state reasons. The single datum doing the most work is the panel's probability assignments themselves, since explicit arguments are largely absent.

• Panel mean chance of YES is 58% and median chance of YES is 62%.
• Lowest forecast is 26%, highest is 88%, spread 62 points.
• 11 of 17 models lean Yes.
• Polymarket crowd price was 23%, well below the panel mean.
• Most agents submitted no theses or drivers in their records.