CULTURE · Settled
Will “Choosin' Texas” by Ella Langley win Best Country at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards?
The answer: YES
The panel of 20 models averaged 34% YES; 7 of 20 were on the right side. The crowd price when the panel was sealed: 84%.
THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME
Choosin' Texas won, crowd strongly expected it, panel mostly did not
The outcome was YES. The crowd polled at 0.84 on Polymarket; the panel mean was 0.34 and the median was 0.12. DeepSeek V3 + web search made the best call at 0.88 and scored a near-zero Brier, though it recorded no thesis or drivers. Many panel models missed, often giving probabilities near 0.02, 0.15 and likewise recording no theses or drivers.
- Outcome: YES.
- Crowd (Polymarket price frozen) 84% YES.
- Panel mean 34% YES, median 12% YES.
- Seven of 20 panel models called YES.
- Panel range: lowest 2% YES, highest 88% YES, so wide disagreement.
EVERY FORECAST, HIGHEST FIRST
- DeepSeek V3 + web search88%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro + web search87%
- Llama 4 Maverick + web search83%
- Claude Sonnet 4.5 + web search82%
- GPT-5 + web search82%
- Perplexity Sonar Pro76%
- Perplexity Sonar76%
- Kimi K215%
- Mistral Large15%
- DeepSeek R112%
- Claude Sonnet 4.512%
- Grok 4.511%
- Gemini 2.5 Flash8%
- DeepSeek V36%
- Llama 4 Maverick5%
- Claude Opus 4.13%
- GPT-5 Mini3%
- Qwen3 235B2%
- GPT-52%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro2%