Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?

THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME

Panel leaned YES at 55% but outcome was NO; three models correctly predicted NO

The market resolved NO on 16 September 2026. The panel mean and median were both 55%, above the Polymarket crowd price of 45%. Three models called the NO outcome: DeepSeek V3 (25%), Claude Sonnet 4.5 (42%) and Llama 4 Maverick (42%); DeepSeek V3 scored best by Brier. The misses were mainly high-YES forecasts, notably Gemini 2.5 Pro at 82%, but none of those models recorded theses or drivers in the panel records.

• Outcome: NO, resolved 2026-09-16 20:15:02.
• Panel: 14 models, mean 55%, median 55%, 3 models called the NO.
• Crowd: Polymarket price frozen at 45%, it called the outcome.
• Best Brier: DeepSeek V3, 25% and Brier 0.063.
• Worst Brier: Gemini 2.5 Pro, 82% and Brier 0.672.