MARKETS · Settled
Will the WTI crude oil close above 91.48 on Friday 18 September?
The answer: YES
The panel of 20 models averaged 48% YES; 9 of 20 were on the right side. The base rate when the panel was sealed: 50%.
THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME
WTI closed above 91.48; panel slightly below neutral, crowd was neutral
The contract resolved YES, with Friday’s close 101.44 above 91.48. The panel mean was 48%, median 49%, versus the crowd base rate 50%. Perplexity Sonar Pro made the strongest YES call at 58%, the panel’s highest probability. The lowest call was Mistral Large at 28%, and nine of 20 models called the event.
- Outcome: YES, Friday close 101.44 versus 91.48 at asking.
- Panel mean 48%, median 49%, nine of 20 models called YES.
- Crowd was a historical base rate, frozen at 50%, so neutral.
- Highest model probability 58% (Perplexity Sonar Pro), lowest 28% (Mistral Large).
- Spread between high and low is 30 points, meeting the panel's disagreement threshold.
EVERY FORECAST, HIGHEST FIRST
- Perplexity Sonar Pro58%
- GPT-5 + web search57%
- Perplexity Sonar57%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro + web search56%
- Llama 4 Maverick + web search52%
- Llama 4 Maverick52%
- DeepSeek V3 + web search52%
- Qwen3 235B50%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro50%
- Grok 4.549%
- GPT-549%
- DeepSeek R148%
- Claude Opus 4.148%
- Claude Sonnet 4.548%
- Claude Sonnet 4.5 + web search48%
- Kimi K245%
- DeepSeek V345%
- Gemini 2.5 Flash42%
- GPT-5 Mini30%
- Mistral Large28%