Will the USD/JPY close above 153.71 on Friday 2 October?

THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME

USD/JPY closed above 153.71; panel split (mean 50%), crowd base rate 57%

The question resolved YES. The panel mean was 50% and median 52%, while the crowd base rate was 57%. Eleven of 20 models called YES; Perplexity Sonar Pro made the strongest YES call at 78% and scored the lowest Brier, 0.048. The weakest call was GPT-5 Mini at 12% with Brier 0.774. There was a large spread in forecasts, but no models recorded theses or drivers in the material.

• Outcome: YES, Friday close 157.81 versus threshold 153.71.
• Panel mean 50%, median 52%, 11 of 20 models called YES.
• Crowd was a frozen historical base rate at 57%, it called the event.
• Best single model: Perplexity Sonar Pro, 78% and Brier 0.048.
• Worst single model: GPT-5 Mini, 12% and Brier 0.774.