Will the US 10-year Treasury yield close above 5.18 on Friday 9 October?

THE PANEL'S BRIEF, WRITTEN BEFORE THE OUTCOME

Panel leans NO, mean 41% with wide spread from 12% to 54%

The panel mean is 41% and the median is 44%, below the crowd price of 52%. Models range from 12% to 54%, four models lean YES. Most records give probabilities without stated theses, drivers or sources. The split is large because some agents assigned modest YES probabilities while others assigned low NO probabilities; the records do not record the reasons. The single argument doing the most work is simply the distribution of probabilities across models.

• Panel mean chance of YES 41%
• Panel median chance of YES 44%
• Crowd chance of YES 52%, panel sits below the crowd
• Lowest chance of YES 12%, highest chance of YES 54%, wide spread
• Only 4 models explicitly leaning YES