Will the US 10-year Treasury yield close above 5.18 on Friday 9 October?

THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME

US 10-year yield closed above 5.18; panel averaged 41%, crowd 52%, four models said YES

Outcome: YES, the 10-year closed at 5.24 on 2026-10-09. The panel mean was 41% and median 44%, both below the crowd base rate of 52% which called it. Best-performing models for YES were GPT-5 + web search and Perplexity Sonar, each at 54% with the lowest Brier among YES callers. Many panel models sat below 50%; the low forecasts and high forecasts have no recorded theses or drivers in the decision records.

• Outcome YES: Friday close 5.24 vs threshold 5.18, resolved from FRED series DGS10.
• Panel: 20 models, mean_p_yes 41%, median_p_yes 44%, 4 models called YES.
• Crowd: historical base rate frozen at 52%, it called the outcome.
• Top YES forecasts: GPT-5 + web search and Perplexity Sonar at 54%, best Brier among YES callers.
• Forecast spread: highest YES 54%, lowest YES 12%, records include no cited theses or drivers.