Will the S&P 500 close above 7637.76 on Friday 2 October?

THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME

S&P 500 closed above 7637.76, crowd 62% vs panel mean 49%, panel split sharply

The S&P 500 closed at 7722.72 on 2 October, so the answer was YES. The crowd, a historical base rate frozen at question time, was at 62% while the panel mean was 49% and the median 53%. Perplexity Sonar (0.62) made the best-scoring call, but the record gives no thesis or drivers for that forecast. The models that missed badly, notably GPT-5 Mini and Mistral Large (each 12%), also recorded no reasons in the panel material.

• Outcome: S&P 500 Friday close 7722.72, above the 7637.76 threshold.
• Crowd (base rate) chance of YES 62%, panel mean chance of YES 49%, panel median chance of YES 53%.
• 16 of 20 panel models called YES, 4 called NO.
• Panel range: highest chance of YES 62%, lowest chance of YES 12%, disagreement present.
• Best Brier 0.144 (Perplexity Sonar/Pro), worst Brier 0.774 (GPT-5 Mini, Mistral Large).