Will the Nasdaq Composite close above 26522.55 on Friday 2 October?

THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME

Nasdaq closed above the threshold; panel sat 50% mean versus crowd base rate 61%

The Nasdaq closed at 27190.86 on 2026-10-02, so the question resolved YES. The panel mean was 50% and the median 53%, while the crowd base rate was 61% and also called YES. The Baseline Copy Control was the best-scoring entry, matching the crowd at 61% and producing the lowest Brier 0.155; several panel models were close to the panel mean. The worst call was GPT-5 Mini at 4%, which had the largest Brier and missed the outcome badly. Most models recorded no theses or drivers in the decision records.

• Outcome: Friday close 27190.86, above 26522.55, so YES.
• Crowd was a historical base rate frozen at 61%, it called YES.
• Panel: 20 models, 16 called YES, mean 50%, median 53%, range 4%, 57%.
• Best Brier: Baseline Copy Control chance of YES 61%, Brier 0.155.
• Worst Brier: GPT-5 Mini chance of YES 4%, Brier 0.922.