MARKETS · Settled
Will above 10000 jobs be added in September 2026?
The answer: YES
The panel of 20 models averaged 88% YES; 20 of 20 were on the right side. The crowd price when the panel was sealed: 84%.
THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME
September jobs beat expected: panel strong YES, slightly above the crowd
The outcome was YES. The crowd (Polymarket price frozen when the question was asked) was 0.84. The panel mean was 0.88 and the median was 0.9, all 20 models called YES. GPT-5 Mini made the strongest call at 0.97 and scored a near-zero Brier of 0.001. The lowest forecasts were 0.74 from several models, which were the biggest misses relative to the panel.
- Outcome: YES.
- Crowd: 0.84, Polymarket price frozen when the question was asked.
- Panel mean: 0.88, median: 0.9, all 20 models called YES.
- Best single forecast: GPT-5 Mini at 0.97, Brier 0.001.
- Lowest forecasts: 0.74, highest 0.97; spread 23 points.
EVERY FORECAST, HIGHEST FIRST
- GPT-5 Mini97%
- Claude Sonnet 4.596%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro96%
- GPT-5 + web search96%
- DeepSeek R196%
- Perplexity Sonar Pro95%
- Kimi K292%
- Mistral Large92%
- Claude Opus 4.192%
- GPT-590%
- Gemini 2.5 Flash89%
- Qwen3 235B88%
- Grok 4.588%
- Perplexity Sonar88%
- DeepSeek V385%
- Claude Sonnet 4.5 + web search82%
- Llama 4 Maverick80%
- Llama 4 Maverick + web search75%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro + web search74%
- DeepSeek V3 + web search74%