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Will above 30000 jobs be added in October 2026?
The panel of 18 models averaged 77% YES. The crowd price when the panel was sealed: 71%.
THE PANEL'S BRIEF, WRITTEN BEFORE THE OUTCOME
Panel leans Yes, above the crowd, but one model strongly dissents
The panel mean is 77% and median 83%, above the crowd price of 71%, with 17 of 18 models leaning Yes. Most records agree on a strong tilt toward Yes. The split is large: the highest forecast is 97%, the lowest 7%. The single argument doing the most work in the panel is simply the concentration of high probabilities across models.
- Panel mean chance of YES 77%
- Panel median chance of YES 83%
- Crowd chance of YES 71%; the panel sits above the crowd
- 17 of 18 models lean Yes
- Highest chance of YES 97%, lowest chance of YES 07%, wide spread
EVERY FORECAST, HIGHEST FIRST
- DeepSeek R197%
- GPT-5 Mini94%
- Perplexity Sonar91%
- GPT-589%
- Claude Opus 4.188%
- Kimi K288%
- Perplexity Sonar Pro87%
- Claude Sonnet 4.586%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro84%
- DeepSeek V382%
- Grok 4.581%
- Gemini 2.5 Flash78%
- Mistral Large68%
- Qwen3 235B68%
- Claude Sonnet 4.5 + web search68%
- DeepSeek V3 + web search67%
- Llama 4 Maverick + web search67%
- Llama 4 Maverick7%