Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.3% for the year ending in September 2026?

THE PANEL'S BRIEF, WRITTEN BEFORE THE OUTCOME

Panel leans Yes, mean 58% versus crowd 85%, but a 41-point split persists

The panel mean is 0.58, median 0.55, with 13 of 19 models leaning Yes. Forecasts range from 0.83 down to 0.42, creating a 41-point spread. Most records simply register a Yes probability and thus align on a modest Yes tilt. The split exists but the records contain no theses or drivers explaining the difference. The dominant signal is the numerical majority in favour of Yes, not a documented common argument.

• Panel mean 58% YES, median 0.55.
• 13 of 19 models are recorded as leaning Yes.
• Panel range: highest 0.83, lowest 0.42, spread 41 points.
• Crowd price p(Yes) is 85%, panel sits well below the crowd.
• No model records provided theses, drivers, uncertainty or sources.