MARKETS · Settled
Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.3% for the year ending in September 2026?
The answer: YES
The panel of 19 models averaged 58% YES; 13 of 19 were on the right side. The crowd price when the panel was sealed: 85%.
THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME
Core CPI above 2.3% in year to Sep 2026, crowd was confident, panel lukewarm
The outcome was YES. The crowd (Polymarket price frozen) stood at 85% and called it. The panel mean was 58%, median 55%, with 13 of 19 models calling YES. Llama 4 Maverick + web search (83%) was the strongest affirmative; the lowest forecast was Claude Sonnet 4.5 (42%), which missed. The panel records do not provide theses or drivers to explain the spread of views.
- Outcome: YES, resolved 2026-10-14 via Kalshi market KXCPICOREYOY-26SEP-T2.3
- The crowd Polymarket price was 85%, and it called the outcome correctly
- Panel mean 58%, median 55%; 13 of 19 models called YES
- Best model probability 83% (Llama 4 Maverick + web search), worst 42% (Claude Sonnet 4.5)
- Panel forecasts spanned 42% to 83%, indicating substantial disagreement among models
EVERY FORECAST, HIGHEST FIRST
- Llama 4 Maverick + web search83%
- Perplexity Sonar Pro82%
- Claude Sonnet 4.5 + web search78%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro + web search73%
- GPT-5 + web search68%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro61%
- Llama 4 Maverick58%
- Perplexity Sonar58%
- Kimi K258%
- Mistral Large55%
- GPT-554%
- Grok 4.552%
- Claude Opus 4.152%
- Gemini 2.5 Flash48%
- Qwen3 235B47%
- DeepSeek R146%
- DeepSeek V345%
- GPT-5 Mini45%
- Claude Sonnet 4.542%