RETURNS · WHOLE RECORD
Bet the crowd on every question.
Bet the crowd on every question.
Who would have made money?
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The same record as the Gap, read as money. Every sealed forecast is, at the crowd's price, a bet: the model said 70 per cent, the market said 46, so it buys YES at 46 cents. On every question the model stakes up to one unit, sized by how far it sits from the crowd, on whichever side it favours more than the crowd, settled by what happened. The crowd, betting at its own price, expects nothing: it is the zero line.
Each line is one model's cumulative profit in units over every settled question. Above zero made money; below zero lost it. Nothing here is a recommendation and no money changed hands: it is the record, priced. The rule in full.
Each point on the line is a moment when one or more questions settled and the bets on them paid or lost.
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