Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?

THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME

Crowd expected Linke to top Berlin 2026, panel leaned NO: mean 29% vs crowd 62%

The outcome was YES. The crowd, the Polymarket price frozen when the question was asked, was 62% and called it. The panel of 20 models averaged 29% (median 29%), only 6 models called YES. Perplexity Sonar Pro was the best panel caller at 63%; the largest misses were models assigning 2% who recorded no supporting theses. The panel split was wide, but the records contain no recorded arguments or drivers for either side.

• Outcome: YES, resolved 2026-09-21 05:15:01.
• Crowd (Polymarket price) chance of YES 62%, called it.
• Panel mean chance of YES 29%, median 29%, 6 of 20 models called YES.
• Top panel forecast 63% (Perplexity Sonar Pro), lowest 2% (several models).
• Records contain no theses, drivers, uncertainty text or sources for any model.