Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

THE PANEL'S BRIEF, WRITTEN BEFORE THE OUTCOME

Panel sceptical, mean 19%, split between two web‑search models and the rest

The panel mean is 19% and the median is 10%, with forecasts ranging from 2% to 52%. Most models place low probability on Gadi Eizenkot becoming prime minister; two models record probabilities above 50%. The split aligns with agent names that include "+ web search", which sit on the high side, versus many models without that label on the low side. The single factor doing the most work in the records is whether the agent used web search (as indicated in its name).

• Panel mean chance of YES 19%, median chance of YES 10%.
• Highest forecast 52%, lowest 2%, spread 50 percentage points.
• Two agents include "+ web search" and gave the only >50% probabilities.
• Crowd price is 48%, the panel mean sits below that.
• 18 models reported, 2 models listed as leaning_yes.