Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

THE PANEL'S BRIEF, WRITTEN BEFORE THE OUTCOME

Panel sits at 38%, wide 50-point split from 62% to 12%

The panel mean is 38% and the median is 39%, with forecasts ranging from 62% down to 12%. Most models cluster near the mid-30s to mid-40s, and the panel sits above the crowd price of 30%. There is a clear split between a few higher-probability models and several low-probability models. The single argument doing the most work is simply the relative probabilities assigned: a minority of models give Netanyahu substantially higher odds while several give him substantially lower odds.

• Panel mean: 38%.
• Panel median: 39%.
• Crowd price: 30%, panel sits above it.
• Highest forecast: Mistral Large 62%, lowest: Gemini 2.5 Pro 12%.
• 3 models flagged as leaning Yes, panel includes 20 models.