Will Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

THE PANEL'S BRIEF, WRITTEN BEFORE THE OUTCOME

Panel very sceptical, clustered low with a small high tail

The panel mean is 6% and the median is 3%, with forecasts ranging from 2% to 17%. Most models place a low probability on a Sudan Emergency Response Rooms win, clustering at 2, 3%. A small subset assigns higher odds, up to 17%, producing the panel’s high tail. The single factor doing the most work is those few higher probabilities supplied by web-search-enabled agents, versus a broad base of low forecasts.

• Panel mean 6%, median 3%, lowest 2%, highest 17%
• Crowd price 16%; panel sits well below that
• Many models at 2% or 3%, indicating broad scepticism
• Top probabilities 17% come from web-search agents
• No model records include theses, drivers, uncertainty text, or sources