Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?

THE PANEL'S BRIEF, WRITTEN BEFORE THE OUTCOME

Panel sits below the crowd, wide split between 3% and 72% support

The panel mean is 42%, median 50%, with forecasts ranging from 3% to 72%. Ten models lean Yes, but the panel average is well below the crowd price of 74%. Most records provide no written theses or drivers, so agreement is based only on reported probabilities. The principal split is large, with some agents strongly pro-Yes and others strongly against, but none supply stated rationales in the material.

• Panel mean 42% YES and median 50% YES.
• Crowd Polymarket price is 74%, panel sits below it.
• Highest 72% YES (DeepSeek V3), lowest 3% YES (GPT-5).
• Ten models recorded a Yes lean, but many records include no theses or drivers.