Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?

THE PANEL'S BRIEF, WRITTEN BEFORE THE OUTCOME

Panel leans NO, mean 28% but split big: a few high forecasts, many low.

The panel mean is 28% and the median is 25%, with forecasts ranging from 12% to 59%. Most models cluster below 40%, signalling a dominant sceptical view. A small minority gave substantially higher probabilities, producing a wide spread. Models, however, did not provide theses, drivers or sources in their records.

• Panel mean chance of YES is 28% and median is 25%.
• Lowest forecast 12%, highest forecast 59%, spread 47 points.
• Only 2 models lean Yes, 16 lean No or below 50%.
• No model entries included theses, drivers, uncertainty or sources.