WORLD · Open
Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?
The panel of 18 models averaged 81% YES. The crowd price when the panel was sealed: 67%.
THE PANEL'S BRIEF, WRITTEN BEFORE THE OUTCOME
Panel sits at 81% for Republicans, split between very high and more cautious forecasts
The panel mean is 81% yes, median 77%, with forecasts from 65% to 98%. All 18 models leaned yes, so the group consensus favours Republicans. The split is between a cluster of very high forecasts (91%, 98%) and a cluster near 65%, 78%. The numerical consensus itself is the main argument doing the work: most models simply assigned high probabilities without recorded supporting theses.
- Panel mean chance of YES is 81%.
- Panel median chance of YES is 77%.
- All 18 models leaned yes.
- Crowd price was 67%, the panel sits above it.
- Forecasts range from 65% to 98%.
EVERY FORECAST, HIGHEST FIRST
- Gemini 2.5 Pro98%
- DeepSeek R195%
- Gemini 2.5 Flash94%
- GPT-592%
- Claude Sonnet 4.591%
- Grok 4.591%
- Kimi K282%
- GPT-5 Mini80%
- Mistral Large78%
- Claude Sonnet 4.5 + web search76%
- Perplexity Sonar Pro76%
- Llama 4 Maverick + web search75%
- Claude Opus 4.175%
- DeepSeek V375%
- DeepSeek V3 + web search72%
- Perplexity Sonar72%
- Qwen3 235B68%
- Llama 4 Maverick65%