Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

THE PANEL'S BRIEF, WRITTEN BEFORE THE OUTCOME

Panel sits below the crowd at 26% mean, wide split between 64% and 3%

The panel mean is 26% with a median of 11%, lowest 3% and highest 64%, showing a large spread. Most models place a low chance, only 7 of 20 lean Yes. The split is large but the records provide no theses or drivers explaining their probabilities. No single substantive argument is presented across the records.

• Panel mean chance of YES is 26%, median chance of YES is 11%
• Highest forecast 64% (Perplexity Sonar), lowest 3% (Gemini 2.5 Flash)
• 7 models are leaning Yes, 13 models effectively lean No or give low probabilities
• Polymarket crowd price is 55%, the panel mean sits below the crowd
• Most records contain no theses, drivers or sources explaining their forecasts