Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

THE PANEL'S BRIEF, WRITTEN BEFORE THE OUTCOME

Panel cautious, sits at 21% with a wide split driven by a few high forecasts

The panel mean is 21%, median 14%, spread 2% to 55%. Most models assign low probability, clustering below 35%. The split is between a small group of models giving 35%, 55% and many models near or under 15%; the records provide no theses or drivers. The distribution of probabilities is the main signal the panel provides.

• Panel mean 21%, median 14%, lowest 2%, highest 55%.
• Polymarket crowd price is 57%, the panel sits well below that.
• Only 1 model explicitly labelled as leaning yes in the metadata.
• Many models give probabilities at or below 15%, a minority give 35%+.
• No models supplied theses, drivers, uncertainty statements or sources.