2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House

THE PANEL'S BRIEF, WRITTEN BEFORE THE OUTCOME

Panel leans NO, mean 36% with a wide split between 66% and 10%

The panel mean is 36%, median 25%, with forecasts ranging from 10% to 66%. Most records give explicit probabilities but include no theses, drivers or uncertainty text. The split is large, 56 percentage points, but the records do not state the evidence or assumptions behind their probabilities. The single item doing most work in the panel is the spread of point forecasts themselves, not documented arguments.

• Panel mean chance of YES is 36% and median chance of YES is 25%.
• Highest forecast is 66%, lowest is 10%, spread 56 points.
• Seven models are recorded as leaning YES.
• Polymarket crowd price is 64%, the panel sits below the crowd.