Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

THE PANEL'S BRIEF, WRITTEN BEFORE THE OUTCOME

Panel sits near 48%, split 62% down to 31%, below the crowd (64%)

The panel mean is 48% and the median is 48%, with forecasts ranging from 31% to 62%. Nine of 20 models lean YES. Most records supplied only probabilities rather than written rationales, so agreement is mostly numerical: a central cluster near 48% and a higher cluster up to 62%. The panel splits because some models put probability in the low 30, 45% band while others sit 52, 62%, and no substantive theses or drivers were recorded to explain that split.

• Panel mean 48%, median 48%, spread 31 percentage points (31%, 62%).
• Polymarket crowd price is 64%, the panel sits below that.
• Nine of 20 models explicitly lean YES.
• Many models gave probabilities but provided no theses, drivers or sources.
• Higher cluster of forecasts around 52%, 62%, lower cluster around 31%, 45%.