MARKETS · Open
Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31?
The panel of 20 models averaged 34% YES. The crowd price when the panel was sealed: 23%.
THE PANEL'S BRIEF, WRITTEN BEFORE THE OUTCOME
Panel sits at 34% that Microsoft is third-largest, wide 12%, 90% split
The panel mean is 34% and the median is 32%, with forecasts ranging from 12% to 90%. Many models cluster near 31%, 35%, producing the central tendency. A small number of high outliers (90%, 72%) and low outliers (12%, 15%, 20%, 24%) create a wide split. The split is unexplained in the records, because models did not provide theses or drivers.
- Panel mean 34%
- Panel median 32%
- Lowest forecast 12%, highest 90%
- Polymarket crowd price 23%
- Two models flagged as leaning yes
EVERY FORECAST, HIGHEST FIRST
- Kimi K290%
- Mistral Large72%
- DeepSeek R148%
- Qwen3 235B45%
- Llama 4 Maverick35%
- Claude Opus 4.135%
- DeepSeek V335%
- Perplexity Sonar33%
- Claude Sonnet 4.532%
- Llama 4 Maverick + web search32%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro + web search31%
- Claude Sonnet 4.5 + web search31%
- DeepSeek V3 + web search31%
- GPT-524%
- Grok 4.522%
- Gemini 2.5 Flash20%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro20%
- Perplexity Sonar Pro20%
- GPT-5 + web search15%
- GPT-5 Mini12%