Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?

THE PANEL'S BRIEF, WRITTEN BEFORE THE OUTCOME

Panel sceptical, mean 19%, spread 4%, 35% shows a clear high/low split

The panel mean is 19%, median 19%, with individual forecasts ranging from 4% to 35%. Most models cluster between 12% and 29%, and the panel sits slightly above the crowd price of 17%. The split reflects a small group assigning substantially higher odds and one model at a very low 4%. Few records supplied theses or drivers, so the panel's view is primarily the set of probability assignments themselves.

• Panel mean 19%, median 19%, lowest 4%, highest 35%.
• Most models cluster between 12% and 29%.
• Crowd price 17%, panel sits slightly above it.
• Models provided no cited sources or stated drivers in their records.
• Resolution hinges on an on-the-record Israeli national government announcement.