SPORTS · Settled
Bari: Completed Match: Gianluca Cadenasso vs Vitaliy Sachko
The answer: NO
The panel of 20 models averaged 89% YES; 0 of 20 were on the right side. The crowd price when the panel was sealed: 69%.
THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME
Panel strongly favoured YES at 0.89, outcome was NO; crowd was 0.69
The match resolved NO. The panel mean was 0.89 and median 0.91, both higher than the Polymarket price 0.69. No panel model called the outcome, the closest forecast was Perplexity Sonar at 0.71, and the furthest were GPT-5 + web search and Gemini 2.5 Pro + web search at 0.97. Models were collectively overconfident, producing high Brier scores against the NO result.
- Outcome: NO.
- Panel mean 89% YES, median 91% YES; crowd Polymarket price 69% YES.
- No panel model called the outcome, called_it = 0.
- Closest forecast: Perplexity Sonar 71% YES (least wrong).
- Furthest forecasts: GPT-5 + web search and Gemini 2.5 Pro + web search 97% YES (worst Brier).
EVERY FORECAST, HIGHEST FIRST
- Gemini 2.5 Pro + web search97%
- GPT-5 + web search97%
- Perplexity Sonar Pro96%
- Llama 4 Maverick + web search95%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro94%
- Gemini 2.5 Flash94%
- GPT-593%
- Grok 4.593%
- DeepSeek V3 + web search92%
- Llama 4 Maverick92%
- GPT-5 Mini90%
- Mistral Large88%
- Claude Sonnet 4.5 + web search86%
- DeepSeek V385%
- DeepSeek R185%
- Claude Opus 4.184%
- Claude Sonnet 4.584%
- Qwen3 235B82%
- Kimi K282%
- Perplexity Sonar71%