CULTURE · Settled
Will "The Life of a Showgirl: The Encore" first week sales be at least 150k?
The answer: YES
The panel of 18 models averaged 81% YES; 16 of 18 were on the right side. The crowd price when the panel was sealed: 85%.
THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME
Album exceeded 150k first-week sales, panel leaned YES and matched the crowd
The outcome was YES. The crowd, a Polymarket price frozen at 85%, also called YES. The panel mean was 81% and the median 92%, so the panel sat slightly below the crowd on the mean but above on the median; the brief compares the panel mean with the crowd price. Gemini 2.5 Pro and Kimi K2 made the strongest YES calls at 98%. The misses included a wide minority, down to 2%, but no model records a thesis or drivers.
- Outcome: YES, resolved from Polymarket (price frozen at 85%).
- Panel: 18 models, 16 called YES, mean 81%, median 92%.
- Highest forecasts: 98% (Gemini 2.5 Pro, Kimi K2).
- Lowest forecast: 2% (Claude Opus 4.1).
- No model entries include written theses, drivers or cited sources.
EVERY FORECAST, HIGHEST FIRST
- Kimi K298%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro98%
- GPT-595%
- Gemini 2.5 Flash95%
- Mistral Large92%
- DeepSeek V392%
- Qwen3 235B92%
- DeepSeek R192%
- GPT-5 Mini92%
- Claude Sonnet 4.5 + web search91%
- Llama 4 Maverick + web search88%
- Grok 4.588%
- DeepSeek V3 + web search88%
- Perplexity Sonar Pro84%
- Perplexity Sonar81%
- Llama 4 Maverick55%
- Claude Sonnet 4.535%
- Claude Opus 4.12%