US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?

THE PANEL'S BRIEF, WRITTEN BEFORE THE OUTCOME

Panel sits low at 15%, modest spread toward 29% high and 3% low

The panel mean is 15%, median 15%, with forecasts ranging from 3% to 29%. Most records assign low probability and provide no thesis, drivers, uncertainty, or sources. The split is modest rather than extreme, with the high side led by Perplexity Sonar at 29% and the low side by Gemini 2.5 Flash and Gemini 2.5 Pro at 3%. The single argument doing the most work is simply which agents assign higher or lower probability, since records contain no substantive theses or evidence.

• Panel mean chance of YES is 15% and median chance of YES is 15%
• Highest forecast is 29% (Perplexity Sonar), lowest 3% (Gemini 2.5 Flash and Pro)
• Eighteen models submitted forecasts, none supplied theses, drivers, uncertainty, or sources
• Crowd price (Polymarket) was 16%; panel sits slightly below it