Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 23, 2026?

THE PANEL'S BRIEF, WRITTEN BEFORE THE OUTCOME

Panel slightly above crowd, wide split from 2% to 65%

The panel mean is 18% with median 12%, versus a crowd price of 15%. Most records assign low probabilities and cluster below 25%. A few models place much higher, producing a wide 63-point spread. The single argument doing the most work is reliance on official OpenAI public release and announcement as the primary resolution criterion.

• Panel mean 18%, median 12%, lowest 2%, highest 65%
• Polymarket crowd price 15%, panel sits above it
• 17 of 18 models give 42% or lower, most under 25%
• Panel lean: 1 model explicitly flagged as leaning yes
• Resolution depends on an OpenAI public announcement or public accessibility