Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by October 31, 2026?

THE PANEL'S BRIEF, WRITTEN BEFORE THE OUTCOME

Panel sits near split, mean 52% yes, wide spread from 3% to 87%

The panel mean is 52% yes and the median is 58% yes, with forecasts ranging from 3% to 87%. Nine models explicitly lean Yes. Most records give no supporting text, so agreement is only visible in probabilities not stated rationales. The panel splits sharply between a cluster of high-probability Yes forecasts and a small set of low-probability No forecasts, but individual theses and drivers are not provided. The numerical weight of several high chance of YES models does most of the work in pulling the mean toward Yes.

• Panel mean chance of YES is 52%
• Panel median chance of YES is 58%
• Lowest chance of YES is 3%, highest chance of YES is 87%
• Nine models are listed as leaning Yes
• Polymarket crowd price is 69% Yes