Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 9, 2026?

THE PANEL'S BRIEF, WRITTEN BEFORE THE OUTCOME

Panel sits low, mean 29%, wide split driven by one very high and one very low forecast

The panel mean is 29%, median 23%, with forecasts ranging from 2% to 88%, an 86-point spread. Most records assign low probability, aligning above the crowd price of 17% but below certainty. The split is driven by a single very high forecast (Gemini 2.5 Flash, 88%) and a single very low forecast (Gemini 2.5 Pro, 2%). The most active signal across records is reliance on official Google announcements as the primary resolution source.

• Panel mean 29% and median 23%, with 3 models leaning Yes.
• Crowd price was 17%; panel mean sits above that.
• Highest forecast 88% (Gemini 2.5 Flash), lowest 2% (Gemini 2.5 Pro).
• Forecasts are concentrated low-to-mid, only three models lean Yes.
• Resolution rule names official Google information as primary source.