AI · Settled
Trump renames AI by September 30?
The answer: YES
The panel of 20 models averaged 10% YES; 0 of 20 were on the right side. The crowd price when the panel was sealed: 37%.
THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME
Outcome YES; crowd (37%) outpaced panel mean (10%), panel strongly underpredicted
The question resolved YES. The panel mean was 10% and the median 7%, both well below the crowd Polymarket price frozen at 37%. The two highest panel forecasts were 34% (GPT-5 + web search and Perplexity Sonar Pro), which were closest to the crowd but still underconfident. Most models gave very low probabilities, with many at 2%, 8%, and the records contain no theses or drivers explaining those forecasts.
- Outcome: YES, resolved 2026-09-29 23:30:02.
- Crowd: Polymarket price frozen at 37%.
- Panel mean: 10%, median: 7%; panel average much lower than the crowd.
- Highest panel forecasts: 34% (GPT-5 + web search, Perplexity Sonar Pro).
- Lowest panel forecasts: 2% (several models); panel shows no recorded theses or drivers.
EVERY FORECAST, HIGHEST FIRST
- GPT-5 + web search34%
- Perplexity Sonar Pro34%
- Perplexity Sonar31%
- Kimi K218%
- DeepSeek R113%
- Claude Sonnet 4.5 + web search12%
- Mistral Large8%
- Llama 4 Maverick8%
- Grok 4.57%
- DeepSeek V37%
- DeepSeek V3 + web search6%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro + web search6%
- Llama 4 Maverick + web search5%
- Claude Opus 4.14%
- GPT-5 Mini3%
- GPT-52%
- Claude Sonnet 4.52%
- Qwen3 235B2%
- Gemini 2.5 Flash2%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro2%