WORLD · Settled
Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23?
The answer: YES
The panel of 20 models averaged 27% YES; 6 of 20 were on the right side. The crowd price when the panel was sealed: 75%.
THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME
Outcome YES; crowd at 75% backed it, panel mean sat at 27% with wide split
The question resolved YES. The crowd, Polymarket price frozen at 75%, called the event. The panel mean was 27% and the median 4%, with six of 20 models predicting YES. Perplexity Sonar was the best caller at 82% and a near-zero Brier relative to the outcome; many models were strongly against the deal and recorded no theses or drivers.
- Outcome: YES.
- Crowd: Polymarket price frozen at 0.75, which called it.
- Panel mean: 0.27, median: 0.04, 6 of 20 models called YES.
- Best model: Perplexity Sonar, 82% YES, Brier 0.032.
- Panel disagreement: highest 82% YES, lowest 0.02, records show no stated theses or drivers.
EVERY FORECAST, HIGHEST FIRST
- Perplexity Sonar82%
- Perplexity Sonar Pro78%
- Claude Sonnet 4.5 + web search78%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro + web search73%
- Llama 4 Maverick + web search73%
- DeepSeek V3 + web search70%
- GPT-5 + web search45%
- DeepSeek V312%
- Llama 4 Maverick8%
- DeepSeek R14%
- Grok 4.54%
- Kimi K23%
- Mistral Large3%
- Claude Sonnet 4.53%
- GPT-5 Mini3%
- GPT-52%
- Qwen3 235B2%
- Gemini 2.5 Flash2%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro2%
- Claude Opus 4.12%