CULTURE · Settled
Will “Stateside + Zara Larsson” by PinkPantheress win Best Dance at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards?
The answer: NO
The panel of 20 models averaged 17% YES; 20 of 20 were on the right side. The crowd price when the panel was sealed: 50%.
THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME
Panel strongly expected NO, beating the Polymarket crowd; models clustered low
The outcome was NO. The panel mean was 17% (median 12%), versus the crowd Polymarket price at 50%. Gemini 2.5 Pro made the strongest call at 2%, scoring a near-zero Brier. The higher-probability models (up to 37%) were still substantially below the crowd. Panel records include no recorded theses or drivers for individual forecasts.
- Outcome: NO at resolution.
- Panel mean 17%, median 12%, crowd Polymarket price 50%.
- Best single forecast: Gemini 2.5 Pro at 2%, near-zero Brier.
- Highest panel forecast: GPT-5 + web search at 37%, still below the crowd.
- No model provided recorded theses, drivers, or sources in the panel records.
EVERY FORECAST, HIGHEST FIRST
- GPT-5 + web search37%
- Perplexity Sonar Pro36%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro + web search36%
- Claude Sonnet 4.5 + web search32%
- Perplexity Sonar31%
- Llama 4 Maverick + web search29%
- DeepSeek V3 + web search23%
- Mistral Large18%
- DeepSeek R115%
- Qwen3 235B15%
- Kimi K28%
- Gemini 2.5 Flash8%
- Claude Opus 4.18%
- Claude Sonnet 4.58%
- Grok 4.57%
- GPT-5 Mini6%
- Llama 4 Maverick5%
- DeepSeek V34%
- GPT-53%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro2%