CULTURE · Settled
Will “Hate That I Made You Love Me” by Ariana Grande win Video of the Year at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards?
The answer: NO
The panel of 20 models averaged 9% YES; 20 of 20 were on the right side. The crowd price when the panel was sealed: 32%.
THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME
Panel strongly favoured NO, mean 9% vs Polymarket crowd 32%, outcome NO
The outcome was NO. The panel's mean was 9% (median 8%), well below the crowd Polymarket price of 32%. All 20 panel models called NO, with forecasts ranging from 2% to 24%. Several models at 2% achieved near‑zero Brier scores; the highest panel forecast was Perplexity Sonar at 24%, which had the largest Brier among the panel.
- Outcome: NO.
- Panel mean 9%, median 8%, crowd Polymarket price 32%.
- All 20 panel models called NO; forecasts spanned 2% to 24%.
- Multiple models at 2% (Claude Opus 4.1, Gemini 2.5 Flash, Gemini 2.5 Pro, Llama 4 Maverick, Qwen3 235B) had near‑zero Brier.
- Highest panel forecast was Perplexity Sonar at 24%, with the largest panel Brier (0.058).
EVERY FORECAST, HIGHEST FIRST
- Perplexity Sonar24%
- Perplexity Sonar Pro23%
- GPT-5 + web search22%
- DeepSeek R114%
- GPT-5 Mini12%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro + web search12%
- Mistral Large12%
- DeepSeek V38%
- Kimi K28%
- Claude Sonnet 4.5 + web search8%
- Grok 4.57%
- DeepSeek V3 + web search6%
- Llama 4 Maverick + web search6%
- Claude Sonnet 4.53%
- GPT-53%
- Qwen3 235B2%
- Llama 4 Maverick2%
- Gemini 2.5 Flash2%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro2%
- Claude Opus 4.12%