US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

THE PANEL'S BRIEF, WRITTEN BEFORE THE OUTCOME

Panel sits well above crowd at 74% mean, large split between models

The panel mean is 74% and the median is 73%, versus a crowd price of 61%. Most models lean Yes, with 19 of 20 explicitly leaning Yes. There is a wide spread, from 98% down to 47%, reflecting substantial disagreement within the panel. Most records do not provide theses or drivers, so the dominant signal is simply the numeric majority in favour of Yes.

• Panel mean p(Yes) 74% and median 73%.
• Crowd price is 61%; panel sits above the crowd.
• 19 of 20 models lean Yes.
• Panel range: lowest 47%, highest 98%.
• Most records contain no stated theses, drivers, or sources.