WORLD · Settled
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?
The answer: YES
The panel of 20 models averaged 81% YES; 19 of 20 were on the right side. The crowd price when the panel was sealed: 79%.
THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME
Ceasefire held, panel slightly more confident than Polymarket and mostly decisive
The outcome was YES. The crowd (Polymarket price frozen) stood at 79%, the panel mean was 81% and the median was 86%. Nineteen of 20 models called YES; Gemini 2.5 Pro made the strongest call at 98% and scored a zero Brier, Perplexity Sonar Pro made the weakest call at 33% and missed. Most misses recorded no theses or drivers, so differences are visible in probabilities rather than documented arguments.
- Outcome: YES, resolved 2026-09-30
- Crowd (Polymarket price frozen) chance of YES 79%
- Panel: 20 models, 19 called YES, mean chance of YES 81%, median chance of YES 86%
- Panel range: lowest 33%, highest 98%
- Best Brier: Gemini 2.5 Pro chance of YES 98%, Brier 0; worst Brier: Perplexity Sonar Pro chance of YES 33%, Brier 0.449
EVERY FORECAST, HIGHEST FIRST
- Gemini 2.5 Pro98%
- GPT-597%
- Claude Opus 4.196%
- Gemini 2.5 Flash96%
- GPT-5 Mini93%
- Kimi K293%
- Claude Sonnet 4.592%
- Mistral Large92%
- DeepSeek R188%
- Qwen3 235B88%
- Grok 4.584%
- Perplexity Sonar79%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro + web search78%
- Llama 4 Maverick75%
- Claude Sonnet 4.5 + web search72%
- Llama 4 Maverick + web search72%
- DeepSeek V3 + web search70%
- GPT-5 + web search70%
- DeepSeek V360%
- Perplexity Sonar Pro33%