WORLD · Settled
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 25?
The answer: YES
The panel of 20 models averaged 80% YES; 18 of 20 were on the right side. The crowd price when the panel was sealed: 83%.
THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME
Ceasefire held to Sept 25, panel mostly agreed with the Polymarket crowd
The question resolved YES. The panel mean was 80%, median 86%, versus the Polymarket price frozen at 83%. Gemini 2.5 Flash (98%) made the strongest call in favour and scored a near‑zero Brier. Perplexity Sonar Pro (28%) was the most wrong, having taken the low side.
- Outcome: YES, resolved 2026-09-27.
- Panel: 20 models, mean 80%, median 86%, 18 models called YES.
- Crowd: Polymarket price frozen at 83%, the crowd called YES.
- Range: panel forecasts spanned 98% down to 28%, showing large numeric spread.
- Best Brier scores near zero for the highest‑confidence YES forecasts.
EVERY FORECAST, HIGHEST FIRST
- Gemini 2.5 Pro98%
- Gemini 2.5 Flash98%
- GPT-596%
- DeepSeek R194%
- Claude Sonnet 4.592%
- Claude Opus 4.192%
- Qwen3 235B92%
- Mistral Large88%
- GPT-5 Mini86%
- GPT-5 + web search86%
- Claude Sonnet 4.5 + web search85%
- DeepSeek V3 + web search84%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro + web search84%
- Llama 4 Maverick + web search83%
- Kimi K282%
- Grok 4.581%
- Llama 4 Maverick65%
- Perplexity Sonar58%
- DeepSeek V335%
- Perplexity Sonar Pro28%