CULTURE · Settled
Will "Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 22m?
The answer: NO
The panel of 20 models averaged 34% YES; 19 of 20 were on the right side. The crowd price when the panel was sealed: 48%.
THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME
Panel judged "Primetime" unlikely, averaging 34% vs the crowd's 48%, outcome NO
The film's opening weekend failed to reach at least m, resolved NO. The panel mean was 34% (median 29%), below the Polymarket price frozen at 48%. Claude Sonnet 4.5 + web search made the best call with 18% and the lowest Brier. Mistral Large made the worst call, at 65% for YES and the highest Brier.
- Outcome: NO, resolved 2026-10-02 20:00:01.
- Panel: 20 models, 19 called it, mean YES 34%, median YES 29%.
- Crowd: Polymarket price frozen at 48% YES, the crowd called it YES.
- Best Brier: Claude Sonnet 4.5 + web search, chance of YES 18%, Brier 0.032.
- Worst Brier: Mistral Large, chance of YES 65%, Brier 0.423, and it did not call it correctly.
EVERY FORECAST, HIGHEST FIRST
- Mistral Large65%
- Kimi K248%
- Perplexity Sonar44%
- Llama 4 Maverick42%
- DeepSeek R140%
- DeepSeek V340%
- Claude Opus 4.138%
- Gemini 2.5 Flash38%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro35%
- GPT-529%
- GPT-5 + web search29%
- Llama 4 Maverick + web search28%
- DeepSeek V3 + web search28%
- Grok 4.528%
- Claude Sonnet 4.528%
- GPT-5 Mini28%
- Qwen3 235B25%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro + web search24%
- Perplexity Sonar Pro22%
- Claude Sonnet 4.5 + web search18%