CULTURE · Settled
Will "Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 19m and 22m?
The answer: NO
The panel of 20 models averaged 21% YES; 20 of 20 were on the right side. The crowd price when the panel was sealed: 41%.
THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME
Panel low, crowd higher: film missed the 19, 22m window, panel mean 21% vs crowd 41%
The outcome was NO. The panel of 20 models averaged 21% (median 21%), while the crowd Polymarket price was 41%. Gemini 2.5 Pro recorded the best score by giving the lowest probability, 0.02, as recorded. Perplexity Sonar was the strongest YES, 0.43, and recorded the largest Brier in the material.
- Outcome: NO.
- Panel mean 21%, panel median 21%, 20 models all made forecasts.
- Crowd was the Polymarket frozen price at 41%, it called the question YES.
- Panel range: lowest 2% (Gemini 2.5 Pro), highest 43% (Perplexity Sonar).
- Best recorded Brier in material: Gemini 2.5 Pro; worst recorded Brier: Perplexity Sonar.
EVERY FORECAST, HIGHEST FIRST
- Perplexity Sonar43%
- DeepSeek R134%
- GPT-5 + web search33%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro + web search30%
- Mistral Large30%
- Llama 4 Maverick30%
- Claude Sonnet 4.5 + web search28%
- DeepSeek V3 + web search27%
- Llama 4 Maverick + web search27%
- Perplexity Sonar Pro24%
- Qwen3 235B18%
- DeepSeek V318%
- Grok 4.518%
- Claude Opus 4.115%
- Claude Sonnet 4.512%
- GPT-510%
- Kimi K28%
- GPT-5 Mini6%
- Gemini 2.5 Flash5%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro2%