AI · Settled
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 24, 2026?
The answer: YES
The panel of 20 models averaged 33% YES; 7 of 20 were on the right side. The crowd price when the panel was sealed: 74%.
THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME
Claude Opus successor released by Sep 24, 2026: panel leaned NO, crowd said YES
The outcome was YES. The crowd (Polymarket price frozen when asked) stood at 74% YES. The panel leaned against release, mean 34% and median 23%, with 7 of 20 models calling YES. Gemini 2.5 Flash made the strongest correct call at 80%, many low forecasts had no recorded theses.
- Outcome: YES, resolved 2026-09-22.
- Crowd (Polymarket frozen price) p(YES) = 74%, crowd called it.
- Panel mean p(YES) = 34%, median = 23%; 7 of 20 models called YES.
- Best single model call: Gemini 2.5 Flash p(YES) = 80%.
- Panel disagreement was large: highest 80% (Gemini 2.5 Flash) vs lowest 2% (Gemini 2.5 Pro and GPT-5).
EVERY FORECAST, HIGHEST FIRST
- Gemini 2.5 Flash80%
- Perplexity Sonar Pro66%
- Llama 4 Maverick + web search65%
- DeepSeek V365%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro + web search62%
- Claude Sonnet 4.5 + web search62%
- DeepSeek V3 + web search62%
- Llama 4 Maverick40%
- Qwen3 235B40%
- Mistral Large28%
- Perplexity Sonar18%
- GPT-5 + web search16%
- Claude Opus 4.115%
- Grok 4.512%
- DeepSeek R112%
- Kimi K28%
- Claude Sonnet 4.58%
- GPT-5 Mini7%
- GPT-52%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro2%