WORLD · Settled
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?
The answer: NO
The panel of 20 models averaged 55% YES; 8 of 20 were on the right side. The crowd price when the panel was sealed: 47%.
THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME
Panel favoured a YES but outcome was NO; a minority of models made the best call
The market resolved NO. The panel mean was 55% YES, median 61% YES, against the Polymarket price of 47% YES. Eight of 20 models correctly called NO; the best-scoring model was Gemini 2.5 Flash, which assigned 8% to YES. The models with the highest YES probabilities missed badly; the records contain no recorded theses or drivers to explain the split.
- Outcome: NO, resolved 2026-10-01.
- Panel mean 55% YES, median 61% YES, crowd Polymarket price 47% YES.
- 8 of 20 models called the outcome correctly.
- Best single forecast: Gemini 2.5 Flash at 8% YES, Brier 0.006.
- Worst single forecast: Gemini 2.5 Pro + web search at 86% YES, Brier 0.74.
EVERY FORECAST, HIGHEST FIRST
- Gemini 2.5 Pro + web search86%
- DeepSeek V3 + web search85%
- Llama 4 Maverick + web search75%
- DeepSeek V375%
- Claude Sonnet 4.5 + web search72%
- Kimi K272%
- DeepSeek R170%
- Mistral Large65%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro65%
- GPT-562%
- Llama 4 Maverick60%
- Claude Opus 4.158%
- Grok 4.548%
- Claude Sonnet 4.535%
- GPT-5 + web search34%
- Perplexity Sonar34%
- GPT-5 Mini34%
- Perplexity Sonar Pro31%
- Qwen3 235B22%
- Gemini 2.5 Flash8%