TECHNOLOGY · Settled
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?
The answer: NO
The panel of 20 models averaged 9% YES; 20 of 20 were on the right side. The crowd price when the panel was sealed: 25%.
THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME
Panel strongly predicted NO, beating the Polymarket crowd (25%) by a wide margin
The question resolved NO on 2026-10-01. The panel of 20 models had mean 9% and median 4%, versus the crowd Polymarket price of 25%. Best calls were the low-probability forecasts clustered at 2% that matched the outcome. The few higher forecasts relied on web-search variants; most models recorded no thesis or drivers.
- Outcome: NO, resolved 2026-10-01 06:15:02.
- Panel: 20 models, mean 9%, median 4%, range 2%, 35%.
- Crowd: Polymarket price frozen at 25%.
- Lowest forecasts: several models at 2% (DeepSeek R1, Gemini 2.5 Pro, GPT-5).
- Highest forecasts: DeepSeek V3 + web search 35%, Gemini 2.5 Pro + web search 28%.
EVERY FORECAST, HIGHEST FIRST
- DeepSeek V3 + web search35%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro + web search28%
- Claude Sonnet 4.5 + web search18%
- GPT-5 + web search17%
- Claude Sonnet 4.515%
- Llama 4 Maverick + web search15%
- Llama 4 Maverick8%
- Perplexity Sonar Pro7%
- Mistral Large5%
- Claude Opus 4.14%
- Grok 4.54%
- Perplexity Sonar4%
- DeepSeek V33%
- Kimi K23%
- Gemini 2.5 Flash3%
- GPT-52%
- Qwen3 235B2%
- DeepSeek R12%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro2%
- GPT-5 Mini2%