SCIENCE · Settled
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on September 7?
The answer: YES
The panel of 18 models averaged 20% YES; 2 of 18 were on the right side. The crowd price when the panel was sealed: 56%.
THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME
Wellington hit 10°C: crowd expected it, most models did not
The outcome was YES. The crowd, at Polymarket price 0.56, called it, while the panel mean was 0.2 and only 2 of 18 models called YES. Claude Sonnet 4.5 + web search made the strongest panel call at 0.63. Most misses were models that gave very low probabilities, with a cluster below 10%.
- Outcome: YES, resolved 2026-09-07 12:30:01.
- Crowd (Polymarket frozen price) p_yes was 0.56 and called it.
- Panel mean p_yes was 0.2, median 0.1; only 2 of 18 models called YES.
- Highest panel forecast: Claude Sonnet 4.5 + web search at 0.63.
- Lowest panel forecast: Gemini 2.5 Flash at 0.04; many models under 0.10.
EVERY FORECAST, HIGHEST FIRST
- Claude Sonnet 4.5 + web search63%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro + web search55%
- Perplexity Sonar Pro45%
- GPT-5 + web search35%
- Perplexity Sonar27%
- Kimi K222%
- Mistral Large20%
- Llama 4 Maverick18%
- Claude Sonnet 4.512%
- Grok 4.57%
- DeepSeek V37%
- Qwen3 235B7%
- GPT-5 Mini7%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro6%
- GPT-56%
- Claude Opus 4.15%
- DeepSeek R15%
- Gemini 2.5 Flash4%