SCIENCE · Settled
Will there be ≤6 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?
The answer: YES
The panel of 18 models averaged 26% YES; 3 of 18 were on the right side. The crowd price when the panel was sealed: 21%.
THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME
Outcome YES, panel leaned slightly higher than crowd; Mistral Large led the call
The question resolved YES. The panel mean was 26%, higher than the crowd price of 21%, and 3 of 18 models called YES. Mistral Large made the strongest call at 85% and had the best Brier score, followed by Qwen3 235B at 65% and Llama 4 Maverick at 62%. Most models missed by assigning low probabilities, several as low as 2%. The uninformed prior control had a 50% baseline and also 'called it.'
- Outcome: YES, resolved 2026-09-15 11:00:01.
- Panel mean_p_yes: 26%, median_p_yes: 22%, 3 of 18 models called YES.
- Crowd (Polymarket frozen price) p_yes: 21%, called_it: false.
- Top calls: Mistral Large 85% (best Brier 0.023), Qwen3 235B 65%, Llama 4 Maverick 62%.
- Lowest calls: several models at 2% (Claude Opus 4.1, GPT-5 Mini, Kimi K2) with Brier 0.96.
EVERY FORECAST, HIGHEST FIRST
- Mistral Large85%
- Qwen3 235B65%
- Llama 4 Maverick62%
- Perplexity Sonar Pro39%
- GPT-536%
- DeepSeek V335%
- Grok 4.524%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro + web search23%
- Perplexity Sonar23%
- DeepSeek R121%
- Claude Sonnet 4.5 + web search18%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro14%
- GPT-5 + web search8%
- Claude Sonnet 4.53%
- Gemini 2.5 Flash3%
- Claude Opus 4.12%
- GPT-5 Mini2%
- Kimi K22%