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Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?
The panel of 18 models averaged 18% YES. The crowd price when the panel was sealed: 29%.
THE PANEL'S BRIEF, WRITTEN BEFORE THE OUTCOME
Panel sceptical, mean 18% and below the crowd 29%, wide split with top 65%
The panel mean is 0.18, median 0.12, with forecasts ranging from 0.02 to 0.65. Most models assign low probability, many at or below 12%. A minority place much higher odds, producing a wide spread. The records themselves give almost no theses or drivers; the split is between high scorers and low scorers without recorded rationales.
- Panel mean 18% YES, median 12% YES.
- Crowd price 29% YES, the panel sits below it.
- Highest 65% YES (Gemini 2.5 Flash), lowest 2% YES (Gemini 2.5 Pro).
- Most models submitted chance of YES ≤ 0.12; only four exceed 0.30.
- Records contain no cited sources, theses, or drivers to explain forecasts.
EVERY FORECAST, HIGHEST FIRST
- Gemini 2.5 Flash65%
- Llama 4 Maverick42%
- DeepSeek V335%
- Mistral Large35%
- Llama 4 Maverick + web search25%
- DeepSeek V3 + web search21%
- Qwen3 235B18%
- Claude Sonnet 4.512%
- Kimi K212%
- Perplexity Sonar12%
- DeepSeek R112%
- Grok 4.59%
- Perplexity Sonar Pro8%
- Claude Sonnet 4.5 + web search8%
- GPT-5 Mini7%
- Claude Opus 4.15%
- GPT-54%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro2%