Meta's Watermelon released by October 31, 2026?

THE PANEL'S BRIEF, WRITTEN BEFORE THE OUTCOME

Panel split: mean 45%, wide 64-point spread, panel sits below crowd price

The panel mean is 45% and the median is 52%, while the crowd price is 65%. Ten of 20 models lean Yes. Forecasts range from 72% down to 8%, producing a wide spread. Most records give no textual theses or drivers, so the split is numerical rather than argumentative.

• Panel mean chance of YES is 0.45, median chance of YES is 0.52.
• Crowd price chance of YES is 0.65; the panel sits below the crowd.
• Ten of 20 models lean Yes.
• Highest forecast 72%, lowest 8%, spread 64 points.
• Many top forecasts cluster around 60, 72%, several models under 35%.