Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on September 6?

THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME

Panel leaned toward YES more than the crowd, but NO occurred; best call was very low YES odds

The highest temperature did not reach 34°C, outcome NO. The panel of 16 models averaged 20% for YES, above the crowd at 10% (Polymarket frozen price). GPT-5 Mini made the best call with 4% for YES, closely matching the NO outcome. Models that missed most assigned much higher YES probabilities, up to 38% from Mistral Large.

• Outcome: NO, highest temperature not 34°C on 2026-09-06.
• The crowd (Polymarket price frozen) was 10% for YES.
• Panel mean was 20%, median 18%, 16 models all called it.
• Lowest model YES probability was 4% (GPT-5 Mini), highest was 38% (Mistral Large).
• Best Brier score was 0.002 from GPT-5 Mini; worst listed Brier was 0.144 from Mistral Large.