Will MrBeast's next video get at least 40 million views on day 1?

THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME

MrBeast video failed to hit 40M day‑one, panel leaned YES while crowd leaned NO

The outcome was NO. The panel's mean probability was 0.57 and median 0.59, favouring YES, while the crowd price was 0.27 and favoured NO. The best call was DeepSeek V3 at 0.25, which correctly favoured NO. The panel misses were the higher‑probability YES forecasts, which clustered between 0.57 and 0.88.

• Outcome: NO, resolved 2026-09-07 00:00:01.
• Panel mean_p_yes 0.57, median_p_yes 0.59, 18 models, only 6 called it correctly.
• Crowd (Polymarket) p_yes 0.27, called it and was correct.
• Best individual forecast: DeepSeek V3 p_yes 0.25, lowest Brier 0.063.
• Worst individual forecast: Gemini 2.5 Flash p_yes 0.88, highest Brier 0.774.