Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.50% in September?

THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME

30-year yield hit 5.50% in September, panel skewed low while a few models strongly called YES

The outcome was YES. The crowd (Polymarket price frozen at 43%) was more bullish than the panel mean (32%), which had 5 of 20 models calling YES. The best calls were GPT-5 + web search (84%) and similar high-YES models; the misses were the many low-YES models, several at 6, 12%. High-side models recorded no theses or drivers in the materials; low-side models likewise provided no recorded rationales.

• Outcome: YES.
• Crowd price: 43%, panel mean: 32%, panel median: 23%.
• 5 of 20 models called YES, highest forecast 84%, lowest 6%.
• Top models had low Briers (GPT-5 + web search Brier 0.026).
• Many models strongly favoured NO, several at 6, 15% with high Briers.